Alumina imports showed a significant increase in the first quarter, but they may decline in the second quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, various restrictions were imposed on the domestic raw material market, resulting in insufficient operating rates for mines and alumina enterprises, and a noticeable decline in raw material production. The supply of spot alumina was insufficient, leading to instances of extended delivery times for some enterprises. Some downstream users began to turn to imported alumina, while domestic resource prices remained at high levels, and the import window remained open.
Since the end of 2023, China's alumina imports have gradually increased, with the first two months of 2024 witnessing a peak in alumina imports.
Data shows that a total of 643,500 tons were imported from January to February 2024. Among them, 351,300 tons were imported in January and 292,200 tons in February, both at high levels compared to the alumina import volumes of the past two years. Australia remains the main source of imports, with approximately 349,000 tons imported in the first two months. This is followed by resources from Indonesia and Vietnam, with imports of 113,700 tons and 102,600 tons respectively in the first two months. Australian resources are mostly directed to high-purity aluminum users in the northwest region through fixed long-term contracts. Spot resources from Indonesia and Vietnam are abundant, with Vietnamese resources, especially, arriving at Guangxi ports and then being transported to aluminum smelters in Yunnan under tight spot conditions in the southwest region.
Alumina imports are expected to remain high in March. In terms of shipping schedules, in March, a total of 7 ships carrying 227,000 tons of alumina arrived at the two main ports of Beihai and Qingdao. Among them, 4 ships carrying a total of 130,300 tons arrived at Beihai, while 3 ships carrying 96,700 tons arrived at Qingdao. Considering additional arrivals at southern ports from Vietnam and some unreported resources, it is estimated that China's alumina imports in March will still be around 260,000 to 280,000 tons.
